Sea level will rise rapidly even if we limit the global warming to 1.5 ° C

Limiting global warming to 1.5 ° C above the pre -industrial baseline will not be enough to prevent sea level from increasing by several meters over the next centuries, according to a review of all the latest evidence.

“I think there is sometimes a misconception that 1.5 ° C will mean that all our problem is going away,” says Chris Stokes at Durham University in the UK. “It should definitely be our goal, but in no way will it slowly or stop the sea level rising from melting isark.”

The world is currently at approx. 2.9 ° C warming with 2100. It would lead to loss of both Greenland and West Antarctica Isark, says Jonathan Bamber at the University of Bristol in the UK. “So if we talk about long -term commitments, it is over 12 meters of sea level increase,” says Bamber.

Stokes, Bamber and their Colleugues have undergone three lines of evidence: Satellite observations of ISTAB and sea level increase during the paste three decades, studies of hot periods in the past and computer models of Isark.

Early computer models, which did not include many key processes, suggested that ice sheets would take a long time to respond to heating, Bamber says. In fact, the satellite observations show that Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets respond quickly.

“The observations show a very different picture,” says Bamber. “Some of the mass loss we have seen in Greenland have really been so staggering, really so far in comparison to what the models had predicted.”

Not only is Greenland and West Antarctica already losing ice, the trend is accelerating, says Stokes. “And all this happens at only 1.2 degrees heating,” he says. “So the idea that 1.5 will somehow solve this problem is misleading.”

Studies of previous hot spell over the past 3 million years show that the sea level was corn meters higher during these periods, says Stokes.

The last report from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), published in 2021, predicted 1 to 2 meters of sea level increase for many centuries if the rise in temperature was limited to 1.5 ° C, Stokes says.

“We bring it forward,” he says. “It is very clear now that we are actually starting to see some of these worst cases scenarios playing almost in front of us with regard to the satellite record for mass balance.”

In order to slow down the sea level rising from the melting isark to a manageable level, the average global templarity must be reduced to approx. 1 ° C above the pre -industrial baseline, the team estimates.

While countries with higher income can defend their shores against rising sea levels, it will become harder and more existed as the sea continues to rise, Bamber says. “And then, of race, there will be a country that has just got that money.”

This is why taing action is important, says Stokes. “Every fraction of a degree rely on questions to Isark,” he says. “Yes, rocking points and thresholds may exist, but I think they can sometimes distract from the basic knowledge that news every fraction of a degree really matters.”