Earth is on its way to another year over 1.5 ° C climate goals

The goal of limiting global warming to a maximum of 1.5 ° C slides even further out of reach as the latest climate data reveals global tempters remain extremely high, by 2025 on Race to Rival 2024 as the Hottet year on a record.

April 2025 was the second warmest April on the record, only in April 2024, according to data from the European Union’s climate change service Copernicus and Berkeley Earth, an American non-profit. Global average temperatures for the month remained at 1.51 ° C over pre -industrial levels, the 21st month of the last 22, which has been aboo this crucial threshold, according to Copernicus. Berkeley Earth’s data set sets April 2025’s average temperature at 1.49 ° C over pre -industrial levels, cooler than April 2024 with only 0.07 ° C.

The continued hot streak has surprised researchers. 2024 was the hottest year on a record where global average temperatures reached 1.55 ° C residence before industrial levels. It was a landmark moment: The first time average temperatures exceeded 1.5 ° C during a calendar year. According to the Paris climate transmission in 2015, the countries agreed to limit any global temperature rise to well below 2 ° C and ideal to 1.5 ° C-over the pre-industrial level, a goal that looks still unlikely.

Researchers had expected the arrival of a cool La Niña weather Pattenn in January to give a republic, with temperatures expecting to fall back a little this year. Instead, global temperatures have remained stubbornly high, which increases fear that 2025 could be the second year in a row over the critical 1.5 ° C watermark. “The recently and the Niña event has not delivered as much cooling that would typically have been expected,” Robert Rohde said at Berkeley Earth during a briefing on May 13.

According to Berkeley Earths Data this year now has an 18 per year. A hundred chance of being the hottest on the record, and one 53 per. A hundred chance of being the second warmest on the record, Rohde said. There is one 52 per One hundred chance of 2025 with average temperatures over 1.5 ° C

How the rest of the year unfolds – and what can be waiting for global temperatures – is now pretty much resting on what a new El Niño or La Niña pattern is evolving in the Pacific, Rohde said.

The continued hot strip eradicates further hope that global temperatures can be limited to 1.5 ° C Paris target. The goal is measured over a 20-year average, but researchers are increasingly concerned that focusing high temperatures means the threshold is already broken. “We will inevitably cross 1.5 ° C in the long -term average in the next decade or so,” Rohde said.

Last year, researchers warned that three individual years when the average temperatures remained over 1.5 ° C would mean that the Paris Agement goal is lost. Similarly, a paper published earlier this year suggested that a race of 12 consecutive months above 1.5 ° C indicates a 80 -century probability that prolonged heating of 1.5 ° C has already been reached.

Richard Allan at the University of Reading in the UK says he has been surprisingly over the heat of the heat. Research over the last two years, and the recent record temperatures have radically changed scientific opinion on what limits heating to 1.5 ° C is achievable, he says. “Without very massive mitigation for the next 20 years or a massive volcanic eruption, I think it is inevitable that we have entered the period when we cross 1.5 ° C over the pre -industrial threshold.”

But he emphasizes that the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the heating to below 2 ° C is still achievable. “It’s still critical that we love to keep the temperatures under it,” he says.